NEBRASKA’S 2009 CORN AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION MOVES HIGHER  
 
Based on September 1 conditions, Nebraska’s corn crop is forecast at a record high 1.55 billion bushels, 2 percent above last month and  11 percent above last year according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, Nebraska Field Office.  Yield is forecast at a record high 169 bushels per acre, 3 bushels above last month, 6 bushels above last year, and 3 bushels above the previous high set in 2004.  Acres to be harvested for grain, at 9.15 million, are up 7 percent from a year ago.
 
  Soybean production in Nebraska is forecast at 237 million bushels, up 4 percent from last month and 5 percent above last year.  Yield is forecast at 51 bushels per acre, up 2 bushels from August and 4.5 bushels above 2008, tying the record high set in 2007.  Acres for harvest, at  4.65 million, are unchanged from last month but down 4 percent from a year ago.
   
  Sorghum production in Nebraska is forecast at 14.9 million bushels, unchanged from the August forecast but down 22 percent from last year.  Yield is forecast at 90 bushels per acre, unchanged from previous month but 1 bushel below last year.  Acres for harvest, at 165,000, are unchanged from last month but 45,000 below 2008.
   
  Sugarbeet production of 1.16 million tons is down 8 percent from last month but up  37 percent from 2008.  Yield, at 22.0 tons per acre, is down 2.0 tons from last month and 0.6 ton below a year ago.
 
Access the National publication for this release at: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd-09-11-2009.pdf
 


Next 2 Weeks Appear Free from Frost
Al Dutcher
Extension Climatologist

With widespread below normal temperatures the past two months, much of the Corn Belt will not begin grain harvest before October 1. Of the 18 largest corn producing states, six (Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) indicated that 25% or more of their crop hadn=t reached the dough stage by September 7. In addition, nine states (Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Wisconsin) reported that less than 50% of the crop had reached the dent stage.

Based upon the most recent National Agricultural Statistic Service information, Nebraska is far ahead of its eastern and northern counterparts in terms of crop maturity. With normal temperatures for the remainder of the month, we estimate that over 70% of the corn crop will be safe from freeze damage. With normal temperatures and a hard freeze (28ºF or lower), less than 10% of the corn crop appears vulnerable to damage from a hard freeze.

Although cool conditions are anticipated through the September 15, warmer than normal conditions are anticipated to build eastward during the third week of the month. An upper air ridge will dominate much of the western U.S., while cooler than normal temperatures are likely across the central and eastern Corn Belt. This will only delay maturity further and increase the risk of freeze damage to the corn crop.

Weather models do not currently indicate freezing temperatures through September 24; however, cold air is building across northern Canada and could move south by the end of September.

If this storm system does pull cold air southward, the most likely area to be a risk for freeze damage would be across the same areas that have seen the brunt of the cold air the past two months. This includes eastern North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and the northern third of Iowa. The highest risk for freeze damage in Nebraska would be in the northeastern corner.
Fall Forecast

We are currently experiencing El Nino conditions in the Equatorial Pacific, which is expected to strengthen as fall progresses. This event began building during the early summer as La Nina conditions quickly faded. Since the early 1950s, there have been seven transitions from La Nina to El Nino conditions in the same year, the last in 1974.

During these years, some distinct climate trends were noticed during October and November. When compared to 1971-2000 averages, October temperatures were warmer than normal across the western two-thirds of the state, while precipitation was below normal across the western third of the state. During November, temperatures were below normal across the eastern third of Nebraska, while precipitation was below normal across the entire state.

This trend occurred at least 70% of the time. If it occurs this year, harvest delays due to wet weather should be minimal with the opportunity for natural air drying of this year’s corn crop prior to harvesting.



Estimated Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection

     Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009 was estimated at 857.9 million lbs. according to the U.S.Department of Agriculture's Marketing Service.  This was 11.8% lower than a week ago and 12.1% lowerthan a year ago.  Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 3.1% lower compared to the previous year.




Export Market Continues to Offer Long-term Opportunity

Despite this year’s drop in U.S. dairy exports, the global market still offers long-term opportunity, the U.S. Dairy Export Council’s (USDEC) Marc Beck says.

“When world economic growth returns, so will the dairy demand that’s driven markets in recent years,” notes Beck in USDEC’s “Cheese Market News” released today.

Although the recession has reduced incomes and, in turn, cut purchases, 2009’s export slump is actually just a blip in the long-term export outlook, says Beck, who is USDEC’s senior vice president of export marketing.

He points to 2008’s record export levels, when $3.83 billion worth of U.S. dairy products were shipped, representing 10.8% of the milk solids produced in the U.S. He believes that performance -- and the past decade of export expansion -- offered a glimpse of what’s to come.

There are “virtually unanimous projections that, in the years ahead, worldwide demand will grow faster than available supply,” he says. Traditional exporters like Europe and Oceania will be unable to fulfill that demand.

Dededication to the longer-term growth opportunities outside the U.S., along with servicing customers and maintaining innovation “will prepare U.S suppliers for a future in which the dairy industry becomes increasingly globalized,” Beck says.

The industry’s long-term commitment to the export market has yielded benefits even now. “Mexico has remained a solid and even growing market in certain key sectors despite global economic troubles, and it stands as a testament to the value of far-sighted market building programs, customer focus and commitment by U.S. dairy suppliers,” Beck notes.

Cheese has been “the star of the show” among exports to Mexico, he says, as U.S. suppliers aggressively serviced the Mexican market and attempted to align their products with customer needs. U.S. cheese exports to Mexico grew 13% in the first half of 2009 – “a stellar figure given that U.S. cheese exports to the rest of the world fell 43% over the same period,” says Beck.



Sign up for Conservation Stewardship Program by Sept. 30

Registration for the Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP) is taking place now until Sept. 30. The CSP is a voluntary program through the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service that encourages producers to address resource concerns in a comprehensive manner by undertaking additional conservation activities; and improving, maintaining and managing existing conservation activities.

CSP is available on Tribal and private agricultural lands and non-industrial private forest land in all 50 States. This program has a continuous sign up however the first-round deadline is Sept. 30.

The Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) will provide financial and technical assistance to eligible producers to conserve and enhance soil, water, air and related natural resources on their land. Eligible lands include cropland, grassland, prairie land, improved pastureland, rangeland, non-industrial private forest lands, agricultural land under the jurisdiction of an Indian tribe, and other private agricultural land (including cropped woodland, marshes, and agricultural land used for the production of livestock) on which resource concerns related to agricultural production could be addressed.

CSP encourages land stewards to improve their conservation performance by installing and adopting additional activities, and improving, maintaining, and managing existing activities on agricultural land and non-industrial private forest land. CSP is available nationwide on a continuous application basis.

The entire operation must be enrolled and must include all eligible land that will be under the applicant's control for the term of the proposed contract (CSP is a five-year contract program) that is operated substantially separate from other operations.



Iowa Farm Bureau Members Set 2010 Legislative Policies

The federal deficit, the need to grow renewable fuel usage and measures to ensure the integrity of Iowa roads brought lively debate among the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation (IFBF) voting delegates who met in West Des Moines last week to approve policy. The state's largest grassroots farm organization members gather annually to approve policies that impact farmers and all Iowans.

IFBF President Craig Lang, who also serves as Chair on the American Farm Bureau Federation Federal (AFBF) Deficit Task Force, said, "Thanks to a U.S. government spending spree, our deficit is the largest in our nation's history, well over $1.8 trillion. Our members don't want to see our children and grandchildren have to shoulder the burden of our nation or state fiscal irresponsibility. Our voting delegates agreed it is essential that Congress achieves a balanced budget and that means finding ways to reduce our over-grown debt. Nothing else will lead to long-term economic security for our nation."

Fiscal responsibility was also the cornerstone of IFBF's state policy development. Voting delegates discussed Iowa's current budget situation and decided that rather than changing Iowa's tax code by eliminating federal deductibility, our lawmakers should focus on reducing expenditures, finding new efficiencies and prioritizing their spending. "In the end, we're just asking them to make the same decisions that all Iowans have to make in this downturned economy," said Lang.

Discussion was also lengthy regarding the need to focus on policy at both the state and federal level increasing usage of renewable fuels. The policy approved will also help reduce our nation's dependence on foreign oil.

National policies that brought much debate included changes to interstate truck weight limits.

"Farm Bureau delegates stand behind the need to protect the integrity of our interstates. Without consistent rules for truck weight limits, maintenance costs will escalate and safety for all Iowans will be jeopardized," said Lang.

The Summer Policy Conference is a step in Farm Bureau's grassroots policy development process, with the Iowa Farm Bureau's national policies yet to be submitted to the AFBF. All state Farm Bureaus meet in January to finalize the organization's national policies.



July Pace Remains Sluggish for U.S. Pork, Beef Exports
    
January through July exports of U.S. pork and beef are lagging behind last year’s pace amid a difficult global economic climate and lingering effects from the H1N1 influenza outbreak. The most recent statistics released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) show pork exports of 1.08 million metric tons (2.38 billion pounds) valued at $2.53 billion. While these totals are a respective 10 percent and 9 percent below last year’s record-shattering pace, they are still 53 percent higher in volume and 48 percent higher in value than in January-July 2007.

Beef exports of 512,053 metric tons (1.13 billion pounds) valued at $1.944 billion are 6 percent below last year’s volume and 10 percent lower in value. This difference, however, is primarily due to a very sluggish global market for beef variety meat. Beef muscle cut exports of 338,217 metric tons (745.6 million pounds) are actually slightly above last year’s volume, while trailing in value ($1.445 billion versus $1.48 billion) by only 2 percent.   

Mexico, Russia demand showing recovery, but pork exports hurt by China’s ban

Mexico has been a tremendous bright spot for U.S. pork throughout 2009, but the surge in exports to Mexico suffered a setback recently during the H1N1 influenza outbreak. Through April, pork exports to Mexico were running 71 percent above last year’s pace in terms of volume and were 62 percent higher in value. The results for May, June and July have been roughly equal to 2008, however, leaving Mexico with totals of 287,687 metric tons (634.2 million pounds) valued at $426.5 million – which is 42 percent higher than the 2008 volume and 23 percent higher in value.

“Pork exports to Mexico are still having a terrific year,” said USMEF Chairman Jon Caspers, a pork producer from Swaledale, Iowa. “But there’s no question that H1N1 caused a lot of economic disruption in Mexico and created a backlog in pork inventories. Hopefully we’re past the worst of that situation, and can move back toward the level of activity we saw earlier this year.”

Japan remains the pacesetter for U.S. pork in terms of value, reaching 259,451 metric tons (572 million pounds) valued at $944.1 million through July. While these results are only slightly above the 2008 volume, they exceed last year’s value by 11 percent. Other markets showing significant improvement include Australia (up 22 percent in volume and 21 percent in value) and the Caribbean (up 42 percent and 35 percent, respectively).

Pork exports to China had already slowed significantly prior to the market closing in early May due to H1N1 influenza. Caspers notes, however, that being essentially shut out of this market for the past four months is a setback the pork industry simply cannot afford.

“Our expectations for China were modest for this year, because we knew they would have much higher domestic production,” he said. “But being shut off completely from the world’s largest pork-consuming market is a very serious blow for the industry.”      

There is no relationship between pork consumption and H1N1 influenza, and consumer attitudes toward pork appear to have recovered quickly despite the media’s persistent mislabeling of the virus as “swine flu.” But Caspers, who was in China last week for the World Pork Conference, said market research in China reveals that more consumer education is needed on this issue (see USMEF’s Sept. 3 news release for more details).

“Across the entire globe, the pork industry cannot afford to have China’s consumers turning away from our product,” he said. “Whether you are a pork producer in Iowa, Indiana, China or Chile, this is a very serious problem. Hopefully we can all work together to provide better information to China’s consumers and turn this situation around.”

Pork exports to Russia are also down about 30 percent compared to last year, due in part to state-specific, H1N1-related market closures in May and June. Exports have also slowed due to the continued delisting of many U.S. pork plants by Russia. The good news, however, is that July pork exports to Russia – 19,625 metric tons (43.3 million pounds) valued at $43.1 million - nearly doubled in volume and more than doubled in value over the June 2009 totals.

U.S. pork exports are also holding up fairly well in terms of percentage of total production. Pork and variety meat exports accounted for 22.8 percent of January-July production, compared to 24.7 percent during the same period last year. Muscle cut exports accounted for 18.3 percent of production, compared to 21.5 percent in January-July 2008.

Beef exports to Asia on the rise, but neighboring markets lagging

Slow demand in Mexico and Canada and a steep decline in beef variety meat exports are the main factors keeping U.S. beef exports below last year’s pace. January-July exports to Mexico reached only 180,350 metric tons (397.6 million pounds) valued at $570.7 million – which is 25 percent below the 2008 volume and 31 percent below last year’s value. This decline is particularly severe on the beef variety meat side, as beef variety meat exports to Mexico have dropped by 35 percent in volume and 47 percent in value.

Exports to Canada (about 84,000 metric tons or 185.2 million pounds, valued at $366.4 million) have fallen 12 percent behind last year’s volume and by 18 percent in value. This may be due in part to the steep decline (about 30 percent from January through August) in live cattle exports from Canada to the United States, though Canada’s domestic slaughter is also down by 1.5 percent.

“These results are disappointing, because our recent record of success in Mexico and Canada has been critical to the profitability of U.S. cattlemen,” said USMEF Chairman-elect Jim Peterson, a cattle producer from Buffalo, Mont. “We need to see better demand for U.S. beef in these markets, and hopefully the recent strengthening of the peso and especially the Canadian dollar will drive some improvement in the coming months.”

U.S. beef continues to rebuild its presence in Asia, led by an 18 percent increase in Japan over January-July 2008 and a dramatic increase in exports to Hong Kong. The July total for Hong Kong of 2,756 metric tons (6.1 million pounds) valued at $9.6 million was more than five times the volume and more than four times the value achieved in July 2008, pushing 2009 exports 111 percent above last year’s volume and 60 percent above last year’s value.

January-July exports to Taiwan are still down slightly from last year, but showing signs of recovery. July exports to Taiwan reached their second-highest monthly total of the year, and July was only the second month in which 2009 exports to Taiwan exceeded the corresponding month’s total from 2008.

Beef exports to Vietnam have increased 38 percent in volume and 59 percent in value over January-July of 2008. July was the second consecutive month, however, in which exports to Vietnam were lower than the corresponding 2008 total. January through July exports to South Korea totaled 28,440 metric tons (or 62.7 million pounds) valued at $111.1 million. But their pace has also slowed, with the July volume being the smallest since the market reopened last year.

In terms of total U.S. production, beef plus beef variety meat exports are accounting for about the same percentage as last year – 9.8 percent in January-July 2009, compared to 10 percent during the same period in 2008.

Lamb exports continue 2009 surge

U.S. lamb and lamb variety meat exports are weathering current economic conditions exceptionally well – rising by 55 percent in volume and 18 percent in value over January-July 2008. The growth in lamb exports has been driven by strong demand in Mexico, where exports have nearly tripled over last year. The Caribbean continues to serve as a mainstay destination for U.S. lamb, despite a slight decline in volume to Bermuda when compared to last year. Bermuda’s export value, however, is still up 15 percent over last year, and lamb exports to the region have been further strengthened by large increases in shipments to the Bahamas and the Netherlands Antilles.